Skid Pad September 1, 2008
As with oil and water, oil and the markets have proved to be immiscible … at least at the current level of oil. While the phenomenon of demand destruction is real – the idea that a higher oil price will, in part, quell its own demand in the way of a negative feedback loop – the timing is such that other things will be destroyed as well, first. Currently, the single largest other casualty has been the overall economy, worldwide, as the inflationary head of oil has significantly crowded out business and consumer spending on a non-discriminatory basis. The credit …
Skid Pad August 19, 2008
As with oil and water, oil and the markets have proved to be immiscible … at least at the current level of oil. While the phenomenon of demand destruction is real – the idea that a higher oil price will, in part, quell its own demand in the way of a negative feedback loop – the timing is such that other things will be destroyed as well, first. Currently, the single largest other casualty has been the overall economy, worldwide, as the inflationary head of oil has significantly crowded out business and consumer spending on a non-discriminatory basis. The credit …
August Post August 1, 2008
To say the markets have been breathtaking – in the absolute worst, kicked-in-the-stomach sense of the word – would be an understatement. It is a scary time, but not, I think, the end of the markets as we know and use them. I can not be certain that we are near the bottom, though I am inclined to think so. Tim is nearly convinced of it, based on his study of current trends in sigma – volatility – and other of his arcane quant arts.
Whether we are right about the precise bottom or not – and we often are …
July 21 2008 July 21, 2008
You need to have a good idea what the money is for, and deploy it with the goal in mind.
If your savings – or a part of them – is for a specific near-term expense, like a wedding, house or kids’ college in a year or two, you need to treat it differently than that for retirement a decade or more off.
This does not mean you can’t dip in if life’s changes and emergencies demand it – as long as your investment selections are “liquid” (instead of locked up in something like a limited partnership or un-traded security), you should …
Chairman Communique - July 2008 July 15, 2008
The markets seem a shamble and fear is rampant. I know you are concerned; any thinking person should be. I can not promise you the worst is over, though I think it is, and Tim agrees. I can tell you this: the worst will eventually be over, and it will probably be over soon. This is a time to hold what you have, and to buy lots more if you can. Financial assets have gotten very cheap in terms of the earning power you get for what you pay. Thousands of worthy babies have been thrown out with the bathwater …
Benchmark Risk July 14, 2008
There is significant attention paid to benchmarks, as well as to the fact that most investors underperform them. Unfortunately, few investors understand the purpose of benchmarks, let alone know why they’re so hard to beat. The truth is, benchmarking is a losing proposition for the vast majority of investors because they invariably compare themselves over too short of a time horizon. In other words, they suffer from nearsightedness. Consider that the benchmark always has the luxury of momentum, as it gets to overweight its winners and underweight its losers, each and every day; on the other hand, the ideal strategy …
July 1st Post July 2, 2008
A client asked this great question in response to the June Chairman’s Communiqué, and kindly allowed me to answer it here. I think you will find it most interesting.
Q. Some feel that the continuing rise in the cost of oil will fuel (a little pun there) a deeper than expected recession and it will hit next year. Indeed, it appears that the market is currently in the process of discounting for that possibility. With that in the picture and all the uncertainty of a potential major shift in world economies, markets, and lifestyles brought on by high energy costs …
Special Chairman Communique - June 27th, 2008 June 27, 2008
Sorry to email you thrice in the same month, but I wanted to give some reassurance on the dramatic markets plunge we saw yesterday. As you will read shortly in our quarterly Investors’ Market Forecast (to be including in your July 1 statements), Tim and I both think the markets are close to a bottom here, and that the worst is over for the U.S. economy. I found it noteworthy as I read the papers this morning that the U.S. Commerce Secretary sees our economy as far healthier than is being reported in the media, and interesting to not see …
Special Chairman Communique - June 20th, 2008 June 20, 2008
This article will be published in your next Wealth Advisor™ (July issue) but one of our Senior Vice Presidents, John Bowsman, thought you might be interested in reading it sooner so we are sending it to you, in advance.
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to give us a call.
A Word from Jeff
A client asked this great question in response to the June Chairman’s Communiqué, and kindly allowed me to answer it here. I think you will find it most interesting.
Q. Some feel that the continuing rise in the cost of oil will fuel …
Chairman Communique - June 2008 June 19, 2008
As predicted in our May Chairman’s Communiqué, the markets have gotten hammered as spring turned to hot summer, and I expect this instability to linger just a bit longer as recession and credit-crunch fears feed into the typical summer trading patterns. That said, I think we are near bottom, and heartily encourage buying at these levels. Tim asks that I emphasize that such buying should be directed at super-diversified portfolios like Camarda’s ISIS®, since making concentrated bets in specific sectors – like banking and finance, to name an obvious peril – could prove disastrous. I still look for a meaningful …
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